CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-12-01T07:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-12-01T07:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16181/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption from AR12787 starting after 2020-12-01T06:30Z as seen by SDO/AIA 094/131/171/193/211/304, and by STEREO-A EUVIA 195. Front enters into the field of view of SOHO C2 at 2020-12-01T07:12Z, C3 at 2020-12-01T08:06Z. The CME front appears as a partial halo in STEREO-A COR2 at 2020-12-01T08:39Z, which is the first available image after a data gap that started at 2020-12-01T07:45Z. The DSCOVR and ACE data are remarkably different for the in-situ signature. DSCOVR data seems to have erroneous sharp increases. From the ACE data, we cannot identify any shock or ICME on Dec 3-5.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-04T04:50Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 22.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.

Lead Time: -35896.10 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy